The article is hidden behind a pay wall, but the Sacramento Business Journal is reporting that delinquent (60 day overdue) subprime home loans skyrocketed in the Sacramento valley over the last year. The highest spikes were in Merced, where delinquency shot up more than 400%. Sacramento's subprime delinquency rate increased over 300%.
This is a bad, bad problem for the housing market. Many of these people have zero-down, interest-only loans, where payments have recently spiked as the principal part of the payment comes due. The buyer has paid no principal over the first few years of the loan, and in many cases, their home has lost value in the interim. After making payments for a few years, they're faced with a drastic payment increase on a house that's worth less than the original loan. Legal complications aside, these people would be better off walking away from the original loan and buying the house next door for less money.
This situation almost inevitably leads to foreclosure, which has a ripple effect. First, it adds to the number of homes in an already-crowded market. As the article mentions, bank-owned foreclosures are often sold at a discount, further depressing prices. It also takes the original buyers out of the market and as subprime lenders go out of business, it becomes difficult to impossible for that entire class of buyer to enter the market. Housing supply goes up, demand goes down and prices keep dropping.
I don't pretend to know how bad it's going to get. My interest is primarily in how the market affects prices in my neighborhood, which affects my ability to sell and/or move. But this bust correction has been a long time coming, and I don't think we're anywhere near the end.
Update: Foreclosure.com lists 164 foreclosures, preforeclosures and bankruptcies in my zip code alone. The site doesn't list dates, but that number is mind-bogglingly high given the relatively small number of homes in my zip code.